Today's Gold Outlook
Gold Holds Its Breath: Awaiting US Inflation Data
Daily Gold Sentiment Scan for XAUUSD - August 11, 2025
As of August 12, 2025, at 11:59 AM AEST, XAUUSD is trading around $3,351.46. Gold is showing caution today, with a slight pullback as the market awaits crucial US inflation data. The previous week’s volatility, driven by conflicting news on potential gold tariffs, seems to have settled after the White House clarified that gold would not be tariffed. This has removed a significant layer of uncertainty.
Future Forecast
Daily Outlook
The daily outlook for XAUUSD is range-bound to slightly bearish in the short term. The price has pulled back from recent highs, driven by profit-taking and the resolution of the tariff scare. The market is currently in a holding pattern, with traders on edge ahead of today’s US CPI release, which will likely dictate the next major price move.
Changes to Weekly Outlook
The weekly outlook, which was previously bullish due to geopolitical tensions and soft US jobs data, is now shifting toward a more neutral to bearish stance for the short term. The primary reason for this change is the clarification on gold tariffs, which has reduced the “safe-haven” premium. The initial surge in gold prices was partly fueled by this uncertainty. Now, with that factor removed, the market’s focus has returned to fundamental data, specifically inflation. A higher-than-expected CPI figure today could strengthen the US Dollar and bond yields, putting significant downward pressure on gold.
Immediate
Economic Events
The most significant event for today is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 12:30 PM AEST. This data point is critical as it will provide insight into the state of inflation and could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, directly impacting the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Price Analysis
Key Technical Levels
For intraday price action, the key technical levels to watch are:
Price Barriers: Resistance
$3,375 - $3,390
Price Floors: Support
$3,330 - $3,350
Trade Insights
Potential Trades
Given the uncertainty surrounding the US CPI data, the risk for major moves in either direction is high. As such, it’s advisable to be cautious or wait for the data to be released before committing to a position.
No Position
- Reason: The upcoming US CPI data release is a major market-moving event with the potential to trigger significant volatility and a decisive break of key technical levels. The market is currently in a state of high uncertainty, and taking a position before the news could lead to unpredictable and potentially large losses. It’s prudent to wait for the data to be released and a clear trend to emerge before entering a trade.
