The daily outlook for XAUUSD is cautiously bullish, building upon the positive momentum from the previous week. The ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, coupled with heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, are providing a strong fundamental tailwind for gold. However, the price is currently consolidating after a significant move, suggesting a period of intraday volatility and potential for a retest of support levels before a possible push higher.

Changes to Weekly Outlook

The previously established weekly bullish outlook remains intact and has been reinforced by new developments. The most significant factor is the implementation of new, broad tariffs by the US, which has stoked fears of a trade war and led to a “safe-haven” flow into gold. This, combined with comments from some Fed officials expressing concern about the labor situation and the high probability of a rate cut in September, strengthens the case for a bullish continuation. The market’s expectation of a September rate cut is now over 90%, which is a significant driver for gold’s appeal as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.