Today's Gold Outlook
Gold Holds Near Record Highs as US Government Shutdown Looms
Daily Gold Sentiment Scan for XAUUSD (Monday, September 29, 2025)
XAUUSD is trading at approximately $3,760.79.
Future Forecast
Daily Outlook
The immediate outlook for Gold is cautiously bullish/range-bound, maintaining a consolidation phase near its all-time high of . The market remains underpinned by the prevailing dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook following the recent rate cut, which is keeping the US Dollar Index (DXY) subdued and US real yields low. Furthermore, the looming US government funding deadline (September 30th) is introducing a layer of safe-haven demand, supporting the price. Intraday price action is likely to be choppy as traders await fresh catalysts, with a strong bias to ‘buy the dips’ unless a major technical support level is broken.
Changes to Weekly Outlook
The weekly outlook remains firmly bullish despite the recent consolidation.
- No fundamental change: The core drivers of the weekly bullish outlook—a dovish Fed, lower US real yields, and heightened geopolitical/political risk (US shutdown risk)—are still intact and providing a strong floor for gold.
- Minor Technical Shift (Consolidation): The price has pulled back slightly from the record high of and is currently in a minor bullish consolidation pattern (like an ascending triangle) on the daily and 4-hour charts. This short-term pullback is seen as a healthy consolidation after an aggressive rally, not a reversal, as prices continue to hold well above key moving averages and support levels.
Immediate
Economic Events
Monday, September 29, 2025, is relatively light for high-impact US economic data. The key focus will be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) speeches and the US government funding deadline which is technically the following day but dominates sentiment:
- US Government Funding Deadline (Tomorrow/Risk Today): The deadline for the US government to pass a funding bill is September 30th. Failure to pass a bill today/tomorrow will trigger a government shutdown on October 1st, which is a significant safe-haven catalyst that could fuel an immediate leg higher in gold.
- US Pending Home Sales MoM AUG (2:00 PM AEST / 12:00 AM New York): Mid-tier data, unlikely to cause a major shift unless it’s a significant surprise.
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index SEP (2:30 PM AEST / 12:30 AM New York): Mid-tier regional manufacturing data.
- Multiple Fed Speeches: Several Fed officials are speaking throughout the US session (e.g., Waller, Hammack, Musalem, Williams, Bostic). Any comments reinforcing a dovish outlook or expressing concern over the economy/shutdown could be supportive of gold.
Price Analysis
Key Technical Levels
Key technical levels for intraday price action are:
Resistance:
$3,800
$3,776
Support:
$3,740
$3,720
$3,688
Trade Insights
Potential Trades
Given the strong overarching bullish trend, the looming shutdown risk, and the current consolidation phase, a “buy the dip” strategy targeting a breakout to new highs remains the primary bias. However, a minor tactical short could be considered if the high-of-day is strongly rejected.
Long
Bounce off Intraday Support
Reason
Bounce off Intraday Support and anticipation of DXY weakness/shutdown premium.
Time Frame
1-Hour / 4-Hour
Entry Level
$3,725.00 – $3,730.00
Take Profit
$3,790.00 (Retest of all-time high)
Stop Loss
$3,715.00
Short
Intraday Rejection/Profit Taking
Reason
Intraday Rejection/Profit Taking at previous high. Only on clear bearish candle confirmation.
Time Frame
15-Minute, 1-hour
Entry Level
$3,785.00 – $3,788.00
Take Profit
$3,755.00
Stop Loss
$3,795.00
