Weekly Report
“Operation Epic Fury” Triggers Historic Safe-Haven Surge
The gold market has transitioned from a tactical recovery into a full-scale crisis revaluation. Following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership and nuclear infrastructure on 28 February, the yellow metal is absorbing a massive geopolitical risk premium. As we stand at the precipice of the Monday open, all indicators point to a “Limit Up” style breakout. While Friday’s formal close was $5,278, weekend activity in tokenised and grey markets suggests an opening print well above $5,300, as investors scramble for the ultimate hedge against a regional war.
Recap of Last Week:
The previous week in the gold market was defined by a steady, technical climb that now looks, in hindsight, like the market “pricing in” a massive shift. Gold opened the week testing the $5,110 support zone but found immediate buyers. By mid-week, the metal gained roughly 1.7% as it neutralised the bearish pressure from early February’s volatility.
Two primary catalysts drove last week’s action prior to the weekend strikes. First, US inflation data (PPI) remained “sticky,” which supported gold as a store of value. Second, aggressive trade rhetoric regarding 10-15% global tariffs had already begun pushing institutional money out of equities and into bullion. However, the closing hours of Friday saw a vertical spike as news of US embassy departure advisories in the Middle East began to leak. By the time the formal exchanges closed, gold had already reclaimed its 4-week high, finishing at $5,278.
Future Forecast
Weekly Outlook
The Outlook for the Week Ahead is Aggressively Bullish
The sentiment for the week starting 2 March is Aggressively Bullish. We expect XAUUSD to trade in an extreme volatility range of $5,300 to $5,550. The “stabilisation” phase of February is officially over; we are now in a “Price Discovery” phase where gold acts as the only liquid insurance against a systemic conflict.
The primary driver is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Because Iran has restricted traffic through this vital shipping lane (responsible for 20% of global oil), gold is being bought as a hedge against “Stagflation”—a rare economic condition where inflation rises while growth slows. Institutional desks at Goldman Sachs and ANZ have noted that 2026 geopolitical conditions have now exceeded historical patterns, making a run toward the $6,000 mark a realistic possibility for the current quarter.
Key Actions
Preparation for the week
Upcoming
Economic Events
Note: While economic data is scheduled, expect it to be secondary to war news.
Price Analysis
Key Technical Levels
The following levels are vital for managing risk and identifying entry points:
Resistance:
$5,600
All-Time High Zone
$5,410
Weekend Peak
Support:
$5,300
New Tactical Floor
$5,250
Structural Pivot
Trade Insights
Potential Trades
Long
"War-Gap" Momentum Entry
Reason
The geopolitical “Black Swan” event of a US-Iran strike provides a high-conviction momentum setup. Traditional technical resistance levels are likely to be ignored in the short term.
Time Frame
4-hour
Entry Level
$5,310 (Market order on the Monday open if the gap is manageable)
Take Profit
$5,520 (Targeting the all-time high resistance zone)
Stop Loss
$5,220 (Wide stop required to account for extreme opening volatility)
Short
No short
Disclaimer: These are potential trade positions based on technical and fundamental analysis for educational purposes. Trading XAUUSD involves significant risk, and actual market outcomes may differ. Risk management is paramount.
Summary
Takeaway
In takeaway, the gold market is no longer trading on interest rate expectations alone. We have entered a period of Geopolitical Primacy, where the news wires dictate the price. The breakout past $5,300 is not a technical fluke but a systemic repricing of risk. Investors should prioritise capital preservation and be prepared for “gaps” in liquidity. The most important level to watch is $5,300; as long as we hold above this, the path of least resistance is aggressively higher.
