The daily outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish despite a minor 0.15% decline in today’s Asian and early European sessions. Market participants are currently balancing two conflicting narratives: a softening US Consumer Price Index (CPI) which bolsters the case for 2026 interest rate cuts, and a resulting “sell the news” reaction that has temporarily strengthened the US Dollar. Technically, gold has found reliable support near the $4,308-$4,313 mark, suggesting that the broader upward trajectory established in the monthly and weekly remains intact. The primary sentiment driver today is the recalibration of real yields; as inflation expectations subside faster than nominal rates, the “inflation hedge” appeal of gold is being tested, even as the prospect of a more dovish Federal Reserve provides a sturdy floor for prices.

Changes to Weekly Outlook

Since the weekly outlook, the stance has shifted from Aggressively Bullish to Bullish-Consolidation. The core reason for this adjustment is the November CPI data released on Thursday, 18 December 2025 (Friday, 19 December 2025 in Sydney), which came in softer than anticipated at a headline rate of 2.7%. While lower inflation is typically a long-term positive for gold (as it encourages central bank easing), the immediate market reaction saw a “rotation” out of gold into equities as recession fears dissipated. Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded to the 98.57 level, creating a temporary headwind for dollar-denominated commodities. However, we do not view this as a trend reversal. The structural demand from central banks—who purchased a record 53 tonnes in October—and the ongoing fiscal instability in the US (with debt at 99.8% of GDP) continue to support the weekly bias for higher prices toward the $4,380 resistance zone.