Weekly Report
Gold Reclaims $5,100 Amid Global Uncertainty
The weekly sentiment for gold has turned decisively bullish as the precious metal successfully reclaimed the critical $5,100 psychological barrier. Following a period of intense volatility in early 2026, the XAUUSD weekly sentiment analysis suggests that investors are once again flocking to safety. This resurgence is primarily driven by a weakening U.S. Dollar and persistent trade uncertainties following recent U.S. Supreme Court rulings on tariffs. As bullion marks its third consecutive weekly gain, the market appears to be shifting from a speculative cooling phase back into a structured uptrend supported by central bank demand and shifting interest rate expectations.
Recap of Last Week:
Gold experienced a robust recovery last week, moving from a midweek low near $4,871 to a strong Friday close above $5,108. This price action was largely a response to renewed U.S. Dollar weakness and a “flight to quality” after the U.S. Supreme Court upheld controversial tariff measures on Friday, 20 February 2026 (Saturday, 21 February 2026, 7:00 AM AEDT). The metal showed remarkable resilience; while silver’s chart remained “messy” with higher industrial volatility, gold’s status as a pure monetary hedge allowed it to absorb the shock of global trade uncertainty effectively. By the week’s end, gold had reversed nearly all losses sustained during the Lunar New Year lull, signaling that buyers are aggressive on dips below the $5,000 mark.
Future Forecast
Weekly Outlook
The Outlook for the Week Ahead is Bullish
The outlook for the week starting 23 February 2026 remains Bullish. The technical formation on the weekly chart has produced a “bullish hammer,” a pattern that typically indicates a reversal of selling pressure and a return of dominant buying interest. Sentiment is bolstered by institutional forecasts from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, which now eye year-end targets of $5,400. We expect gold to remain range-bound with an upward bias, provided it maintains its footing above the psychological $5,000 floor. The primary risk to this outlook would be a surprise hawkish turn in Federal Reserve rhetoric or a sudden de-escalation in global trade tensions.
Key Actions
Preparation for the week
Investors should focus on monitoring U.S. inflation data and manufacturing indices to gauge the health of the American economy. With gold trading at historic highs, “price discovery” is in full effect, meaning technical levels from the late-January peak of $5,594 will serve as the next major magnets for price action. It is essential to watch the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) closely; a break below its 4-year low would likely provide the fuel needed for gold to challenge $5,200. Additionally, keep an eye on physical bullion premiums in India and China, as these often signal whether the current price levels are being accepted by the world’s largest physical consumers.
Upcoming
Economic Events
The following events are high-priority for gold traders this week:
Price Analysis
Key Technical Levels
The following levels are vital for managing risk and identifying entry points:
Resistance:
$5,290
Resistance
$5,141
Resistance
Support:
$5,046
Support
$5,000
Support
Trade Insights
Potential Trades
Long
Trend Continuation
Reason
Reaction to the weekly “bullish hammer” and the successful reclaim of the $5,100 level.
Time Frame
4-hour
Entry Level
$5,105 – $5,110
Take Profit
$5,285
Stop Loss
$5,035
Long
Mean Reversion
Reason
Potential for an intraday “fake-out” if U.S. Consumer Confidence data exceeds expectations, leading to a temporary USD spike.
Time Frame
1-hour
Entry Level
$5,140
Take Profit
$5,055
Stop Loss
$5,165
Disclaimer: These are potential trade positions based on technical and fundamental analysis for educational purposes. Trading XAUUSD involves significant risk, and actual market outcomes may differ. Risk management is paramount.
Summary
Takeaway
Gold enters the final week of February with strong momentum, having successfully transformed the $5,000 level from a daunting barrier into a reliable floor. While the “mania” of January has subsided into a more sustainable “slow grind,” the fundamental drivers—central bank accumulation and geopolitical trade friction—remain firmly in place. Investors should remain vigilant for volatility surrounding Friday’s PPI data, but the prevailing technical structure suggests that the path of least resistance for XAUUSD remains to the upside.
