Weekly Report
Will Gold Break $4,600 Amid Venezuela Crisis?
The second week of 2026 has opened with gold (XAUUSD) asserting its dominance as the ultimate safe-haven asset. Following a historic rally throughout 2025, the yellow metal has found fresh momentum amidst a potent cocktail of geopolitical instability in South America and shifting expectations for US monetary policy. As we transition into the trading week, the market remains hyper-focused on whether bullion can turn its recent consolidation into a definitive break toward the psychological $4,600 level.
Recap of Last Week: The Venezuela Shock
The previous trading week was defined by high volatility and a renewed “fear bid.” Gold prices surged by approximately 3%, reclaiming the $4,500 handle after a brief period of year-end profit-taking. The primary catalyst was the escalating crisis in Venezuela, involving territorial disputes and leadership fractures that threatened global oil supplies and “shadow gold” flows. This geopolitical friction forced institutional investors to seek shelter in tangible assets.
Additionally, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday, 9 January at 8:30 AM (AEDT: Friday, 9 January at 11:30 PM), provided a mixed but ultimately supportive backdrop. While hiring slowed to just 50,000 new jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%. This “low-hiring, low-firing” environment suggests that while the US economy isn’t in a freefall, the Federal Reserve has ample room to maintain its easing cycle. Gold reacted positively to the data, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Future Forecast
Weekly Outlook
Bullish Bias
The sentiment for the coming week is Bullish, though we expect a “coiling” effect as price action tightens near recent highs. The structural uptrend remains firmly intact, supported by the “Golden Cross” observed on the 4-hour charts last week—a technical event where a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term one, signalling strong upward momentum.
We expect gold to remain well-supported as long as the “Venezuela Shock” remains unresolved. Furthermore, the 14-month gold-buying streak by the People’s Bank of China continues to provide a solid floor for prices by tightening global supply. While tactical pullbacks are possible if US inflation data surprises to the upside, the path of least resistance remains skewed to the high side.
Key Actions
Preparation for the week
Traders should focus on the following themes and data points to navigate the volatility:
Upcoming
Economic Events
The following schedule highlights critical releases for the week (all times US Eastern/AEDT):
Note: The Tuesday CPI release carries the highest uncertainty. A higher-than-expected print could trigger a sharp USD rally, causing a temporary “flush out” of gold longs.
Price Analysis
Key Technical Levels
Technical analysis involves studying historical price charts to identify patterns and levels where buyers or sellers are likely to congregate.
Resistance:
$4,550
All-Time High
$4,500
Psychological Barrier
Support:
$4,450
Trend Line Support
$4,380
21-Day SMA
Trade Insights
Potential Trades
Long
The Support Bounce
Reason
Reaction to the H4 support trendline and buyers’ absorption near the $4,470 level.
Time Frame
4-hour
Entry Level
$4,485 – $4,495
Take Profit
$4,550
Stop Loss
$4,445
Long
The Breakout Extension
Reason
Momentum play following a clean H1 close above recent resistance, targeting the next round handle.
Time Frame
1-hour
Entry Level
$4,525 (on confirmation of a candle close above)
Take Profit
$4,595
Stop Loss
$4,505
Disclaimer: These are potential trade positions based on technical and fundamental analysis for educational purposes. Trading XAUUSD involves significant risk, and actual market outcomes may differ. Risk management is paramount.
Summary Takeaway
Gold has entered 2026 with an aggressive bullish posture, driven by the “Absolute Resolve” military operation in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro. This geopolitical shock has injected a massive risk premium into the market, pushing prices back above the $4,500 threshold. While long-term targets of $5,000 are now being openly discussed by institutional banks like J.P. Morgan and HSBC, the immediate outlook is one of “coiling” volatility. Traders should expect high-stakes price action this week as the market weighs safe-haven demand against critical US CPI inflation data. The primary takeaway is to remain long-biased but cautious of a technical pullback if inflation remains “sticky” above 2.8%.
