Weekly Report
Gold Holds Amid Fed Rate Cut Frenzy
Gold continued its powerful surge, climbing out of a critical psychological pit to set up a new challenge for the recent highs.
The precious metal successfully defended the psychological support last week, with the Spot XAUUSD daily low on Tuesday, 18 November 2025, hitting $3,998 before a significant rebound. Gold is now consolidating above .
The primary driver remains the strong expectation of Federal Reserve monetary easing. Dovish comments from certain Fed officials and weakening economic indicators have seen the probability of a December rate cut surge, heavily supporting the non-yielding asset.
Future Forecast
Weekly Outlook
Bullish Bias, Consolidation Risk
The underlying trend remains upward due to macro tailwinds (Fed pivot, geopolitical risk). However, the immediate upside is heavily constrained by strong technical resistance and the seasonal influence of the U.S. holiday calendar.
Gold is consolidating within the tight – range. A confirmed breakout above is required to target the – zone.
The Thanksgiving Holiday (Thursday) will strip liquidity from the market, increasing the potential for sharp, volatile movements (whipsaws) that may trap traders.
Gold remains a “buy the dip” proposition. Caution is advised when trading near the resistance until Friday’s early close, due to the low liquidity environment.
Key Actions
Preparation for the week
To navigate the holiday-shortened trading week, focus on the following key points:
Upcoming
Economic Events
The week is packed with high-impact data releases, heavily front-loaded before the U.S. holiday. (All times are U.S. Eastern Standard Time, EST).
Price Analysis
Key Technical Levels
The market is oscillating between support and resistance, waiting for a definitive catalyst.
Resistance:
$4,245
Major Resistance
$4,150
Previous Structural High (Supply Zone)
$4,100
Pivot Point
Support:
$4,040
Immediate Support (Intraday Lows)
$4,000
Critical Psychological
Trade Insights
Potential Trades
Given the strong uptrend and the holiday-induced range, we focus on range-bound trades and trend entries at support.
Long
Trend entry
Reason
Look to buy the support dip, anticipating a defence of the demand zone.
Time Frame
4-hour, daily
Entry Level
$4,055
Take Profit
$$,150
Stop Loss
$4,020
Short
Range Scalp
Reason
Look for momentum exhaustion and a clear bearish reversal at the ceiling on the 1-hour chart.
Time Frame
1-hour
Entry Level
$4,158
Take Profit
$4,105
Stop Loss
$4,178
Disclaimer: These are potential trade positions based on technical and fundamental analysis for educational purposes. Trading XAUUSD involves significant risk, and actual market outcomes may differ. Risk management is paramount.
Summary Takeaway
Gold (XAUUSD) maintains a Bullish Bias. The market is strongly supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, fueled by softening U.S. economic data. The price is consolidating in the $4,050 – $4,160 range. A sustained break above $4,160 is required to confirm a push toward $4,225.
Liquidity will be extremely thin from Wednesday afternoon onwards due to the U.S. Thanksgiving Holiday, increasing the risk of volatility and sharp, unexpected price moves. The most significant event is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday, 26 Nov, 2:00 PM EST / 6:00 AM Thu, 27 Nov AEDT), which will dictate the near-term strength of the U.S. Dollar and, consequently, Gold.
The strategy for the week is to “buy the dip” near the $4,050 support, but reduce position sizes significantly as liquidity drops before the holiday.
