The daily outlook for XAUUSD is range-bound with a bullish bias. While gold has seen some downward pressure recently, it’s holding firm above key support levels. The prevailing sentiment is that while there may be short-term volatility, the long-term upward trajectory remains intact. A weakening labor market and continued expectations of a Fed rate cut, despite mixed inflation data, are providing underlying support. However, optimism around a potential U.S.-China trade truce and a stronger U.S. dollar are acting as headwinds, keeping a lid on any major breakouts.

Changes to Weekly Outlook

The previously established weekly outlook of a long-term bullish trend remains largely unchanged. However, there has been a notable shift in the near-term narrative. The market is showing increased sensitivity to geopolitical news, particularly concerning U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations. Positive news on these fronts, such as the potential for a trade truce, has been a key factor in the recent price pullback. This highlights that while the overall bullish fundamentals are in place (weakening U.S. labor market, rate cut expectations), short-term price action will be heavily influenced by shifts in risk sentiment driven by geopolitical headlines. The support level around $3,300 is proving to be a critical line in the sand.