The daily outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish as the market transitions from 2025’s aggressive rally into a structural testing phase. While the long-term trend is supported by central bank accumulation and a “de-dollarisation” narrative, the immediate price action suggests a “wait-and-see” approach from institutional players. Gold is currently holding above the critical $4,300 psychological level, which serves as a baseline for the 2026 opening.

Expectations of a “soft landing” in the US economy are being challenged by cooling labour data, which traditionally supports gold as a defensive asset. However, the lack of immediate momentum to break back above $4,400 suggests that profit-taking remains a secondary force in the market. Today’s sentiment is defined by a balance between safe-haven demand—driven by renewed Russia-Ukraine infrastructure strikes and US-Venezuela trade frictions—and the restrictive impact of high real yields.

Changes to Weekly Outlook

The outlook has shifted from “Aggressively Bullish” to “Neutral-Bullish Consolidation.” This change is primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s December meeting minutes, which revealed a deeper-than-expected divide among policymakers. While a 25-basis-point cut was delivered in December 2025, the “dot plot” for 2026 indicates only one or two additional cuts for the entire year, which is less dovish than the market had previously priced in.

Furthermore, the resolution of the brief US government shutdown in late 2025 has removed an immediate “chaos premium,” leading to a technical retracement. Despite this, the structural bull case remains intact because physical demand from Asian markets—particularly Chinese insurance giants now permitted to allocate more to gold—continues to provide a solid floor for any price dips. We are watching for a daily close above $4,380 to signal the resumption of the weekly uptrend.