Weekly Report
Bullish Momentum Holds
Recap of Last Week
Gold (XAUUSD) experienced another strongly bullish week, setting a new all-time high around $3,791. Price action was volatile but ultimately closed higher, confirming that dips continue to be bought aggressively.
Gold started the week strong, breaking through key resistance to hit the new high mid-week. Following the high, a healthy, minor correction occurred, which was quickly supported, seeing the metal close the week just under $3,760. The weekly candle closed as a medium bullish candlestick, reinforcing the underlying trend.
The primary driver remains the dovish sentiment from the Federal Reserve (Fed), which recently cut rates and is expected to cut more this year, weakening the US Dollar and lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. This is coupled with ongoing strong central bank demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, which heightens gold’s safe-haven appeal. The mid-week dip was likely profit-taking after the new high, but the swift recovery showed deep buying interest.
Future Forecast
Weekly Outlook
The outlook for XAUUSD this week is Bullish with a high probability of a range-bound start before a potential bullish breakout.
The overall multi-year trend and the weekly close above the previous high territory strongly favor the upside. The market is positioned for a test of the psychological $3,800 level.
The fundamental environment (dovish Fed, geopolitical risk, central bank buying) remains highly supportive. Technically, the price is consolidating just below the all-time high, often a precursor to a new leg up. However, a significant batch of US labor market data this week introduces high-impact risk, meaning we could see increased two-sided volatility and a potential short-term pullback before any continuation.
Key Actions
Preparation for the week
Traders should prepare for a volatile week dictated by the US economic calendar, with a focus on labor market reports.
All major US labor and manufacturing reports must be monitored for their impact on Fed rate cut expectations and the US Dollar.
Upcoming
Economic Events
The following high-impact US economic events are scheduled (All times are Approximate AEST conversion of the relevant US release time):
🚩 Higher Uncertainty Warning: The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate release on Saturday at 12:30 AM AEST is the highest-impact event. This data will significantly inform the market’s expectation for the Fed’s next policy move and will likely trigger a large, swift price swing in XAUUSD.
Price Analysis
Key Technical Levels
XAUUSD is trading at elevated levels, making prior highs and minor corrections the most relevant technical lines.
Price Barriers: Resistance
$3,800
$3,791
Price Floors: Support
$3,760
$3,735
$3,700
Trend Line Focus: The daily chart shows an Ascending Channel remains firmly in place. The price is currently resting near the middle of this channel, suggesting room to move toward the top resistance (around $3,865-$3,890) if supported by data.
Momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily and weekly charts remains in bullish territory, but is highly elevated, indicating the potential for a mild pullback/consolidation before the next major move.
Trade Insights
Potential Trades
Given the strong bullish momentum but the looming high-impact NFP data, a trend-continuation long on a successful breakout of the all-time high is preferred, or a dip-buy near strong support.
Long
Breakout Play
Reason
Breakout of the all-time high resistance at $3,800, confirming the continuation of the powerful trend.
Time Frame
4-hour, daily
Entry Level
$3,802.00 (Breakout confirmation)
Take Profit
$3,840.00 (R2 Projection)
Stop Loss
$3,778.00 (Below prior 4H structure)
Long
Dip Buy
Reason
Bounce off the key technical and psychological support zone, providing a high reward-to-risk entry for the continuation trade.
Time Frame
4-hour
Entry Level
$3,720.00 (Test of Major Support S2).
Take Profit
$3,788.00 (Near ATH)
Stop Loss
$3,695.00 (Below Key Support S3)
